The JPY/USD currency pair has been displaying a range-bound behavior on the 240-minute chart. Currently, the price is situated above both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a generally positive sentiment. However, the price is currently testing the 50-day moving average at the 139.695 level, which could act as a crucial point of decision for the market.
Scenario 1, if the price breaks below the 139.426 support level, it may lead to further downside movement towards the 138.923 level. Should bearish momentum persist, the market could potentially decline even further to the 138.399 level which is a major Point of control area. Traders should closely monitor the price action around these support levels for potential trading opportunities.
Scenario 2, if the price manages to hold above the 139.426 level or breaks above the 139.713 level, it could indicate a shift in sentiment towards the bullish side. This could pave the way for a retest of the 140.199 resistance level. A successful breach of this level might open up further upside potential, targeting the volume area high at 140.688.
It is worth noting that the market has been confined within a relatively tight range between 138.400 and 140.940 since May 24th to June 8th. Within this range, the 138.923 level has proven to be a psychologically significant area with a price appreciation of almost 1.39%. Traders should carefully analyze the price action and monitor how the market reacts around these levels.
While the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) still indicates a bullish momentum over the longer term, the short-term momentum suggests a bearish bias, with the RSI approaching an undecided range. This adds another layer of complexity to the market dynamics and emphasizes the importance of cautious decision-making.
In the coming sessions, traders should closely watch for any significant developments that could influence the JPY/USD pair. Additionally, the upcoming FOMC meeting on June 13th and 14th and BoJ Interest Rate Decision on June 16th, could play a significant role in shaping the price movement of JPY/USD in the weeks ahead. Keeping a watchful eye on key support and resistance levels, as well as broader market factors, will be crucial for successful trading decisions.