Presently, the price of EUR/USD is exhibiting a bullish short-term uptrend, with prices currently testing the 1.07478 level. It’s worth noting that this level aligns with the 25% Fibonacci retracement level, which holds significance in technical analysis. But the long-term Relative Strength is still bearish for the medium term for the 2 months’ time period.
A noteworthy observation is the emergence of a converging long-term Range pattern, indicating a possible tightening range for the market. The range appears to oscillate between the 1.07030 level to the 1.07870 level.
Considering this scenario, two potential outcomes exist.
Scenario 1: the price may head lower from the current range of 1.07560 and find support around the 1.07430 level. If this support holds, the market could potentially move towards the 1.07324 level, which is based on the recent lows of today. However, if the bearish trend persists, the market might extend its downward movement towards the major psychological support level of 1.07240. This particular level holds significant importance as it could serve as a decisive factor in determining further price movements.
Scenario 2: suggests the possibility of the price heading higher from its current levels to test the major resistance level at 1.07593. If the test at this level proves successful, the market may continue its upward trajectory, aiming to test the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.07650. Beyond this resistance line lies the crucial psychological level of 1.07776. A breakthrough of this level during the current week could lead to increased bullish action for the month.
However, it is crucial to bear in mind that the market is currently trapped in a long-term range, fluctuating between 1.06360 and 1.07850 levels. Despite this range-bound behavior, it’s noteworthy that the EUR/USD pair has appreciated by at least 0.80% throughout the month of June.
Important news for the week includes, the ECB’s Interest rate decision on June 15th which will play an important role in shaping how the price will react in the coming weeks. A notable mention would also be the CPI data for EURO Zone to be released on June 16th. Please adhere cautious risk management, make sure to analyze the key levels to see how price tends react at those levels.
Key Levels to Watch are 1.07593,1.07650, 1.07240,1.07216,1.08084