Weekly Wrapup: Fed Split, Tariff Chess & a Dollar Bid — 28 July – 1 August 2025
1. Narrative in a Nutshell
Five consecutive sessions delivered a drama-laden blend of policy intrigue and trade brinkmanship…
2. Macro Pulse — Inflation Edge vs. Growth Fade
Fed optics. The first split vote in three years showcased…
3. Tariff Theatre — Deadlines, Delays & Deal-Making
EU-U.S. Framework (28 Jul). Averts immediate auto duties…
4. Currencies — Dollar Flexes, Euro Buckles, Yen Wobbles
Dollar Index (DXY). Spent the week grinding higher…
5. Commodities — Gold Bid, Oil Whips, Copper Cracks
Gold. Held a rising channel between 3 300 and 3 345…
6. Rates & Credit — Curve Compression, Spread Wiggles
Treasury curves flattened to 42 bp on 2s-10s…
7. Equities — Defensive Rotation, Tech Resilience
The S&P 500 slipped 0.19 % on the week…
8. Risk Map into Mid-August
Tariff Clock: Mexico’s 90-day grace and a potential China pact could shift…
9. Take-Aways for Traders
FX: Bias to sell EUR/USD rallies into 1.16…
