Skip links
GBP/USD Falls Amid Strong U.S. Data and Fed Rate ExpectationsDetach

USD/JPY Tumbles Toward Cloud Support as U.S. Data Misses

USD/JPY slides sharply as US yields tumble on weak data and Fed uncertainty; cloud base support eyed

USD/JPY slides sharply as US yields tumble on weak data and Fed uncertainty; cloud base support eyed

Technical Analysis:
USD/JPY dropped notably on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields fell in response to disappointing U.S. economic data and heightened uncertainty surrounding Fed policy. Initial jobless claims rose more than expected, corporate profits contracted sharply in Q1, and pending home sales figures were soft, collectively underscoring concerns over economic momentum. Additionally, the release of a statement following a meeting between Fed Chair Powell and President Trump, where Trump reiterated criticism over the Fed’s recent decision to hold rates steady, further dampened investor confidence in the dollar and U.S. yields, accelerating USD/JPY’s retreat to intraday lows.

Technically, the pair’s decline brought it toward key near-term support at the cloud bottom (143.85) and the 200-hour moving average (143.92). A decisive break and close below this support zone would indicate a further bearish shift, potentially targeting deeper corrective moves toward the May 26 high at 143.09, an important former resistance now turned support level. Momentum indicators have started to weaken considerably on intraday and daily timeframes, with RSI indicators moving lower and reinforcing the growing bearish bias in USD/JPY. This negative sentiment is likely to persist unless the pair can quickly reclaim and stabilize above initial overhead resistance at the 21-day moving average near 144.82.

Looking ahead, a significant slew of economic data from Japan on Friday—including Tokyo CPI—will be closely monitored for further cues. Should Japanese data reinforce expectations of potential BOJ tightening or improved domestic fundamentals, USD/JPY downside pressure could intensify. Conversely, any upside surprises in U.S. data or renewed dollar-positive sentiment could trigger a short-term recovery toward technical resistance levels at the 21-day moving average (144.82), followed by the 55-day moving average (145.66). However, the overarching market environment, marked by sustained uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policy and cautious Fed guidance, will likely limit substantial USD/JPY rebounds in the near term.