USD/JPY Extends Gains on Fading BOJ Hike Bets
USD/JPY extended its gains on Monday, reaching a new one-week high near 151.35, as investors reacted to diminishing expectations of a BOJ rate hike this month and signs of global reflation lifting equity markets. Market participants now see only a 30% chance of a BOJ December rate hike, down from over 60% a week ago, amid speculation that policymakers will hold steady this month and use a speech by BOJ Deputy Governor Himino next month to prepare markets for a potential move in January. This dovish shift for the near term has supported USD/JPY, helped along by higher Treasury yields and rising oil prices that reinforce the dollar’s yield appeal.
Technical Analysis
Technically, the pair has reclaimed important ground, with immediate resistance at the 50-day moving average (151.50) and the 200-day moving average (151.99) looming overhead. A close above the 200-DMA would be significant, suggesting renewed upward momentum and the reemergence of long USD carry trades. On the downside, support resides at the Ichimoku cloud top around 150.11 and the 149.40-60 zone, which previously contained the pair’s decline. The current price action indicates a shift in sentiment, as recent oversold conditions in yen crosses have eased, and global growth optimism drives risk assets and commodity prices higher.
Near-Term Focus
The near-term focus remains on central bank communications and potential policy shifts. While the Fed is widely expected to cut rates next week, cautious positioning and low volatility have limited USD/JPY’s upward momentum. Any hawkish signals from the BOJ or a surprising downshift in global sentiment could trigger volatility. However, with yen bulls increasingly skeptical about December tightening and global growth optimism on the rise, USD/JPY appears poised to maintain its upward trajectory unless data or policy guidance undermines current market expectations.