USD/JPY Stalls as Yields Stabilize; 148.12 and 149.10 Define Range

USD/JPY Stalls as Yields Stabilize; 148.12 and 149.10 Define Range

USD/JPY concluded nearly unchanged on Thursday, demonstrating resilience around the midpoint of its well-defined 148-150 consolidation range. The pair’s stability near 148.70 is underpinned by a mild recovery in U.S. Treasury yields following U.S. economic data, notably jobless claims, existing home sales, and the Philadelphia Fed index, suggesting steady underlying U.S. economic growth. Technically, the pair has repeatedly failed to penetrate critical support at 148.12—the March 11 bearish reversal high—which remains a key pivot point that defines short-term bearish and bullish sentiment.

From a broader technical perspective, USD/JPY’s limited intraday volatility and continued adherence to the established range suggest traders are awaiting stronger directional cues from either U.S. economic data or BOJ policy shifts. Immediate support at the March 11 high (148.12) is followed closely by the March 12 low (147.78) and the March 13 low (147.42). A decisive daily close below 148.12 could trigger a rapid decline toward the year-to-date low at 146.55, shifting technical sentiment markedly bearish and possibly signaling an end to the recent corrective bounce from those lows.

On the upside, the immediate barrier remains the March 18 low at 149.10. Bulls need a clear breakout and sustained daily close above this level to regain short-term momentum, potentially paving the way toward the March 5 high at 150.18. However, given recent mean-reversion behavior and muted bullish enthusiasm until the psychologically significant 150 level is decisively breached, price action is likely to remain cautious, choppy, and range-bound until fresh fundamental developments—possibly Japan’s CPI data on Friday—provide greater clarity.