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USD/JPY Daily Chart Analysis

USD/JPY Rebounds on Fed Rate Hike Pause Hopes, BOJ Policy Hold Expectations

The USD/JPY pair has experienced a notable recovery in Asian trading sessions, climbing from 156.55 to 157.03 after plunging to 155.70 overnight due to weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI figures. This rebound is largely driven by market perceptions that the Federal Reserve may adopt a “one-and-done” rate hike strategy for the year, which helps maintain the advantageous interest rate differentials for the USD. This outlook is reinforced by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will uphold its accommodative monetary policy in its forthcoming meeting, thereby further supporting the interest rate gap between the two currencies.

The prevailing yield environment highlights this disparity, with Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) yielding 0.965% for 10-year bonds compared to 4.750% for U.S. 2-year Treasury notes and 4.310% for 10-year Treasury notes. This substantial yield differential continues to draw investors towards the USD, underpinning the USD/JPY pair. 

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has demonstrated strength, rebounding into the hourly Ichimoku cloud, which currently offers resistance in the 157.05-157.06 range and peaks at 157.07-157.16. This cloud is expected to narrow considerably, potentially indicating a more confined trading range. Key moving averages are also influential in the current trading scenario, with the 55-hour moving average around 156.95 and the ascending 100-hour moving average at 156.75, both providing support. The kijun-sen, part of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, stands at 156.50, further aligning with broader market support levels.

Momentum indicators point towards a continuing bullish trend, though with some caution. The expansion of the 21-day Bollinger Bands indicates increased volatility and a strong trending market. However, a close below 1.0718/20, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June rally and Tuesday’s low, would signal bearish tendencies. The pair’s ability to remain above these levels suggests a prevailing bullish sentiment.

Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic for the USD/JPY pair, driven by the wide interest rate differentials and supportive technical indicators. The BOJ’s likely decision to maintain its accommodative policy stance supports the bullish outlook for USD/JPY. However, potential volatility surrounding key economic data releases, such as U.S. inflation figures and Federal Reserve policy announcements, should be closely monitored.

In conclusion, the USD/JPY pair appears set for continued gains, supported by favorable interest rate differentials and strong technical support levels. Investors should stay alert to any changes in policy signals from both the BOJ and the Fed, as these could introduce significant volatility and potentially reverse the current trend.

Key Levels to Watch: : 155,156,160,158