USD/JPY traded in a choppy range between 153.84 and 155.14 on Monday as markets digested Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s noncommittal stance on a potential December rate hike. Ueda’s data-dependent messaging left traders without a clear signal, adding to volatility in an already thin market. Despite the lack of verbal intervention following recent sharp yen moves, the pair has found support near 153.84/86, where a double bottom formed alongside the daily Ichimoku tenkan line at 154.03. Resistance looms at the hourly kijun and 100-hour moving average (HMA) near 155.13-155.19, while the broader hourly Ichimoku cloud between 155.55 and 156.22 could limit any rallies.
Technical indicators suggest the pair remains range-bound for now. Immediate support lies at the double bottom near 153.84/86 and the ascending 200-HMA at 154.30. Resistance is concentrated around the 100-HMA and hourly kijun, with significant options expiries at 154.50 ($450 million) and 156.00 ($320 million) potentially anchoring price action. A break below 153.84 could see USD/JPY testing deeper support levels, while a sustained move above 155.19 would open the door to a challenge of the Ichimoku cloud and 156.22.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on upcoming Japanese data, including September core machinery orders and October economic metrics, for signs of recovery. Additionally, U.S. Treasury yields, currently down from Friday’s highs, and any further BOJ commentary will remain critical in shaping USD/JPY’s trajectory.