Tesla’s Q2 Deliveries Report: Beating Estimates Amid Global EV Competition

Q2 2024 Delivery Numbers and Stock Performance

While not part of the earnings report, Tesla recently released its Q2 2024 delivery numbers, which had a significant impact on the company’s stock price:

• Vehicles delivered: 443,956 units, surpassing analyst expectations of 439,302
• Production: 410,831 vehicles
• Stock performance: Shares surged over 10% following the delivery report

Outlook and Challenges

1. Competitive Pressure: Tesla faces increasing competition from both traditional and emerging automakers in the electric vehicle market.
2. Price Reductions: The company has implemented various discounts and incentives to boost sales, potentially impacting profit margins.
3. Workforce Restructuring: Tesla recently announced plans to reduce its global workforce by over 10%.
4. Future Products: The company plans to unveil a robotaxi on August 8, 2024, and continues to focus on self-driving technology.
5. Production Challenges: Tesla cited temporary factory closures and shipping disruptions as factors affecting sales earlier in the year.

Tesla’s last earnings report for Q1 2024 revealed some challenges for the electric vehicle manufacturer, but also showed resilience in certain areas. 

Q1 2024 Financial Results

Revenue and Earnings

• Revenue: $21.3 billion, down from $23.33 billion a year earlier
• Earnings per share (EPS): 45 cents, below the expected 50 cents
• Net income: $1.13 billion, a 55% drop from the previous year

Automotive Segment Performance

• Automotive gross profit margin (excluding regulatory credits): 16.4%, down from nearly 19% in Q1 2023
• Average selling price per vehicle: Approximately $43,800, a slight increase from $43,600 in the previous quarter but down 5% year-over-year
• Operating profit per vehicle: Approximately $3,000, a nearly 50% decrease year-over-year

Non-Automotive Business

• Sales: $3.9 billion, up 12% year-over-year
• Gross profit: $484 million, a 60% increase year-over-year

Cash Position

• Cash reserves: Nearly $27 billion, down from approximately $29 billion at the end of 2023

Upcoming Earnings Report

Tesla is scheduled to release its Q2 2024 earnings report on July 23, 2024, after market close. This report will provide more detailed insights into the company’s financial performance following the recent delivery numbers. In conclusion, while Tesla’s Q1 2024 earnings showed some decline in key metrics, the recent Q2 delivery numbers have boosted investor confidence. The upcoming Q2 earnings report will be crucial in determining whether Tesla can maintain this momentum and address the challenges it faces in an increasingly competitive electric vehicle market.

Tesla’s Q2 deliveries compared to previous quarters:

Tesla’s Q2 2024 delivery numbers show a mixed performance when compared to previous quarters:

1. Quarter-over-quarter comparison:

• Q2 2024 (444,000) vs Q1 2024 (387,000): Increase of approximately 14.7%

This represents a significant improvement from the previous quarter, indicating a rebound in deliveries.

1. Year-over-year comparison:

• Q2 2024 (444,000) vs Q2 2023 (466,140): Decrease of approximately 4.7%

Despite the quarter-over-quarter increase, Tesla’s Q2 2024 deliveries are still lower than the same quarter last year, showing some challenges in maintaining year-over-year growth.

1. Comparison to recent peak:

• Q2 2024 (444,000) vs Q4 2023 (484,507): Decrease of approximately 8.4%

Tesla’s Q2 2024 deliveries are still below the record set in Q4 2023, indicating that the company has not yet returned to its peak delivery performance.

1. Trend analysis:

• Q3 2023: 435,059
• Q4 2023: 484,507
• Q1 2024: 387,000
• Q2 2024: 444,000

This sequence shows that Tesla’s deliveries have been fluctuating, with a significant drop in Q1 2024 followed by a recovery in Q2 2024. The latest numbers suggest a return to a more stable delivery pattern, though not yet reaching previous highs.It’s worth noting that Tesla’s Q2 2024 deliveries exceeded analyst expectations of around 439,302 vehicles, which contributed to a positive market reaction with the stock surging over 10% following the delivery report. In conclusion, while Tesla’s Q2 2024 deliveries show improvement from the previous quarter and beat analyst estimates, they still lag behind the company’s performance from a year ago and its recent peak. This suggests that Tesla is recovering from recent challenges but still faces obstacles in returning to its highest delivery levels.

Tesla’s Q2 Deliveries vs Competitors:

To compare Tesla’s Q2 2024 deliveries with its competitors in China, we need to analyze the available data:

Tesla:

• Global Q2 2024 deliveries: 443,956 vehicles

Key Chinese competitors:

1. BYD: 426,039 electric vehicles in Q2 2024
2. NIO: 57,373 vehicles in Q2 2024
3. XPENG:  Delivered 52,028 in the first half of 2024

It’s important to note that Tesla’s figure represents global deliveries, while the competitors’ numbers are primarily for the Chinese market. 

Key observations:

1. Tesla vs BYD: BYD’s Q2 deliveries (426,039) were very close to Tesla’s global figure (443,956), falling short by only about 17,917 vehicles. This indicates that BYD is rapidly closing the gap with Tesla in terms of overall electric vehicle sales.
2. Tesla vs NIO: NIO’s Q2 deliveries (57,373) are significantly lower than Tesla’s global numbers. However, NIO showed strong growth, with deliveries increasing by 143.9% compared to the same period last year.
3. Tesla vs XPENG: While XPENG’s specific Q2 number isn’t available, their first-half 2024 deliveries of 52,028 suggest their quarterly numbers are likely lower than NIO’s.
4. Market dynamics: The Chinese EV market is highly competitive, with domestic brands like BYD showing strong performance. Tesla faces intense competition in China, which may be contributing to its global delivery decline (down about 4.7% year-over-year).
5. Growth trends: While Tesla’s deliveries decreased year-over-year, Chinese competitors like NIO and BYD are showing significant growth. This suggests a shift in market share within the Chinese EV market.

In conclusion, while Tesla remains a major player in the global EV market, Chinese competitors, especially BYD, are rapidly gaining ground. The intense competition in China is likely impacting Tesla’s overall performance, as evidenced by the year-over-year decline in global deliveries. However, without specific data on Tesla’s China deliveries, it’s challenging to make a direct comparison in the Chinese market alone.