EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis – 2024-04-23

The EUR/USD currency pair has encountered a challenging phase, primarily influenced by the interplay of yield spreads and robust US Treasury yields, which traditionally bolster the US dollar. The pair opened near 1.0645 and exhibited early weakness as the comparative firmness in US yields exerted downward pressure. Concurrently, the slide in gold prices reinforced the US dollar’s strength, given their typically inverse relationship.

On the chart, the EUR/USD is seen consolidating below key moving averages, with the 20-DMA and 50-DMA acting as dynamic resistances. This position beneath the moving averages is commonly interpreted as a bearish signal. Additionally, a declining Relative Strength Index (RSI) corroborates the bearish technical sentiment, indicating that sellers have the upper hand in momentum.

However, the currency pair’s decline has been somewhat arrested as lower yields have prompted buyers to step in, contributing to a marginal recovery. This buying resurgence, along with gains in equity markets, has exerted counterpressure against the US dollar’s buying momentum, leaving the EUR/USD trading around 1.0660 and slightly down by only -0.02%.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamentally, the scenario for the Euro is laced with caution. The upcoming release of the Eurozone and German High-Grade Output Balance (HCOB) manufacturing, services, and composite Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for April presents potential risks. These indicators serve as proxies for economic health, with any contraction suggesting challenges ahead for the Eurozone economy. If these PMIs demonstrate weakness, they could catalyze further bearish sentiment for the euro.

Moreover, the backdrop of divergent monetary policies between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve adds another layer of complexity. With the Federal Reserve exhibiting a hawkish stance and the ECB being more cautious, the yield differential could further strengthen the US dollar against the euro.

Overall Market Sentiment

Taking into account the technical and fundamental aspects, the market sentiment for the EUR/USD pair leans toward caution with a sentiment breakdown of 40% Positive, 40% Neutral, and 20% Negative. The positive sentiment is sustained by the recent buying activity at lower yield levels, hinting at resilience in the euro. The neutral sentiment reflects the market’s wait-and-see approach ahead of the Eurozone’s PMI data, with potential implications on the ECB’s policy decisions. The negative sentiment is influenced by the bearish technical patterns and the supportive factors for the US dollar, such as firm Treasury yields and the possibility of aggressive Fed action.