EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis – 2024-04-15

The EUR/USD pair has shown some resilience in early trading, opening at 1.0628 after experiencing a significant drop on Friday, fueled by a rush towards the USD as a safe-haven asset amidst global uncertainties. The pair’s recovery was aided by demand for EUR/JPY, suggesting cross-currency flows are providing some support to the euro.

Technically, EUR/USD is entrenched in a downtrend, evidenced by the bearish alignment of the 5, 20, and 50-day Moving Averages (MAs). Despite the bounce, the pair’s recovery is tentative, with significant resistance located at the 20-day MA at 1.0770 and the 20-day MA at 1.0790. On the downside, key support is seen at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of at 1.0605, which if broken could suggest a continuation of the bearish trend.

Fundamental Analysis: Fundamentally, diverging policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve are exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD. The market remains cautious with a glimmer of hope that the Middle East crisis will not escalate further, which is currently limiting the upside for safe-haven currencies like the USD and JPY.

Overall Market Sentiment: The market sentiment towards EUR/USD is cautiously pessimistic, reflecting the ongoing bearish technical structure and macroeconomic divergence between the U.S. and Eurozone monetary policies.

Sentiment Percentage Breakdown:

• 20% Positive: This sentiment reflects the slight recovery from early lows, suggesting that the market is finding some temporary footing for the euro.
• 40% Neutral: Reflecting the market’s caution as it navigates geopolitical risks and awaits clearer signals from central bank policies.
• 40% Negative: The bearish sentiment dominates, underscored by the negative technical indicators and the contrast in the ECB and Fed’s policy outlooks, which could further challenge the euro.

The negative sentiment is rooted in the recent price action that has seen the EUR/USD underperform amid a strong USD environment. The market’s neutrality is indicative of the hesitation to commit to a direction amid a complex global backdrop. The limited positive sentiment hangs on the possibility that the worst of the sell-off may be over if geopolitical tensions do not escalate.