EUR/USD Bulls Maintain Grip Above Key Fibonacci Level Despite Dollar Rebound
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD maintained a firm bullish stance Thursday, despite surrendering some of its substantial overnight gains. The pair opened the New York session around 1.1050 after an impressive rally from 1.0805 to a high of 1.1147 on EBS. Early upward momentum was driven by falling U.S. yields and broad-based dollar weakness, supported technically by a narrowing German-U.S. yield spread. However, intraday momentum waned slightly as U.S. yields rebounded, and EUR/USD retreated from the peak, trading back below 1.1025 late in the session, yet still marking an impressive daily advance of approximately +1.62%.
Technically, the pair’s break above the critical 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the significant decline from 1.1214 to 1.0125 is notably bullish. Daily and monthly RSI indicators continue to trend upwards, reflecting robust and broad-based bullish momentum. Additionally, EUR/USD’s sustained position above key moving averages—the 200-day around 1.0730, 21-day near 1.0850, and the short-term 5-day around 1.0950—reinforces a solid bullish bias and suggests limited downside risk unless these moving averages are breached decisively.
Looking ahead, EUR/USD bulls target initial resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.1147, above which the door opens to a retest of the major 2024 peak at 1.1214. Conversely, near-term support rests firmly at the psychological 1.1000 mark and then stronger technical support around 1.0950-60. Friday’s U.S. payroll report and commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Powell represent critical event risks that could catalyze significant volatility, with bullish technical sentiment vulnerable only to unexpectedly strong U.S. data or notably hawkish Fed rhetoric.