EUR/USD Bulls Poised to Target 1.0950 Breakout if Tariff News Supports Risk
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD strengthened noticeably on Wednesday, trading firmly above its daily opening level of 1.0795 and extending its gains to an intraday high at 1.08738. The pair closed New York trade at around 1.0850, marking a 0.54% advance on the day. Technically, EUR/USD remains securely anchored within the midpoint of its established consolidation range of 1.0733–1.0955, a range in place since mid-March, indicating healthy consolidation of gains made since February’s monthly low. Crucially, the pair continues to hold comfortably above significant moving averages—namely, the 200-day moving average at 1.0730, the 21-day at approximately 1.0800, and the short-term 5-day moving average around 1.0825—all of which offer substantial support and strengthen the bullish outlook.
Key technical indicators reinforce the positive sentiment. Daily and monthly RSIs remain in a rising trajectory, underscoring increasing bullish momentum that favors a potential breakout to the upside. Traders are closely watching immediate resistance at 1.0950/60, the recent range top. A decisive break through this level, possibly triggered by tariff-related news that is less severe than expected, could rapidly activate stop-loss buy orders, propelling the pair swiftly toward the 2024 yearly high of 1.12104, and potentially the 2023 peak at 1.1276 thereafter.
On the downside, however, traders must remain cautious. Should President Trump’s tariff announcement spur severe risk aversion, the subsequent surge in dollar buying could exert heavy selling pressure on EUR/USD, challenging critical support at the 200-day moving average near 1.0730. A definitive breach below this pivotal level could trigger additional selling momentum, targeting structural support zones at 1.0600/30 initially, followed by deeper support around 1.0525/35—levels coinciding with the January and February highs.