USD/JPY carved out a doji candlestick in Wednesday’s session, highlighting market indecision as the pair oscillated within the Ichimoku cloud and above its double-bottom support near 146.60. The hesitation reflects caution ahead of comments by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, which could recalibrate expectations for an October policy shift.
Market Context
- Macro Drivers: U.S. Treasury yields firmed as September layoffs fell and Fed official Logan emphasized persistent inflation risks. These hawkish cues lent USD some support.
- Risk Appetite: U.S. tech-led equity strength reduced demand for the yen as a haven, while muted overnight volatility (8.1%) suggested constrained positioning.
- Event Risks: Upcoming Ueda remarks, Q3 Tankan, and PMI finals will be closely watched for BOJ signals.
Technical Picture
- Supports:
- 146.50 (100-DMA).
- 146.21 (lower Bollinger Band).
- 145.50 (Sept 17 hammer low).
- Resistances:
- 147.83 (21-DMA).
- 148.03 (cloud top).
- 148.29 (200-DMA).
- Momentum: The doji reflects stalling momentum after the double-bottom bounce at 146.60. RSI is neutral; MACD flat, consistent with indecision.
Outlook
The balance is finely poised. A daily close below 146.50 would tilt momentum bearish, targeting 146.20 then 145.50. Conversely, a breakout above the 21-DMA and cloud top (147.83–148.03) would reassert the bullish case, opening the 200-DMA at 148.29. Traders should expect volatility to spike around Ueda’s comments.