Harmonizing Charts and Fundamentals: A Three-Layer Playbook for Timing Commodity Markets
1. Introduction: Why Timing Matters
Commodity prices rarely travel in straight lines…
2. The Three-Layer Framework at a Glance
Macro-Pulse Layer – Identify the broad fundamental currents…
3. Layer 1: Reading the Macro Pulse
Supply Policy Shifts: OPEC+ scrapping voluntary cuts…
4. Layer 2: Diagnosing Market Structure
Trend Locus, Support/Resistance Architecture, Volatility Pacing…
5. Layer 3: Executing with Micro Triggers
Candlestick Confirmation, Momentum Alignment, Volume…
6. Case Study: Crude Oil 2024–25
Macro pulse, Market structure, Micro trigger events…
7. Risk Blueprint
Position sizing, Event hedges, Exit discipline…
8. Psychological & Execution Considerations
Cognitive confirmation and journaling…
9. Conclusion
Timing commodities is about aligning evidence layers—not predicting the future…
