Top Stocks to Trade for July: AI-Chip Supremacy Plays
Top Stocks to Trade for July: AI-Chip Supremacy Plays
1. Nvidia (NVDA) – The King Keeps Crowning Itself
Moat — Relentless silicon/IP lead plus the newborn Blackwell GPU family, with a cheaper China-compliant variant that dodges export bans.
Catalyst — First Blackwell production batches ship to U.S. hyperscalers in mid-July; guidance can rise as soon as the late-July earnings call.
Technical Setup — After flagging around $1230, price carved a tight pennant; a burst over $1285 targets a measured move to $1400.
What-if? — A bucket of cheap GPUs for China could cannibalize H100 ASPs. Keep stops under the 20-day EMA.
2. Micron (MU) – The HBM Bottleneck Beneficiary
Moat — 1-β DRAM and 232-layer NAND deliver the industry’s best bit-cost curve; every wafer is spoken for through 2025.
Catalyst — Street models still underweight HBM3E revenue; a mid-quarter pre-announcement wouldn’t surprise.
Technical Setup — The June gap created a new platform at $106. A weekly close above $120 opens the door to $140; RSI > 77 argues for buying dips, not breakouts.
What-if? — Samsung’s foundry ramp could add supply; monitor spot HBM pricing.
3. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) – Open-Ecosystem Challenger
Moat — MI350 accelerators ride an open AI-rack standard, locking in Oracle Cloud and Meta volume.
Catalyst — “Advancing AI” day on July 18 may include MI375 teasers; option IV already rising.
Technical Setup — The stock is grinding against resistance at $199. A clean break aims for the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $225.
What-if? — Yield hiccups at TSMC’s N4P node would shift delivery into August—watch foundry chatter.
4. ASML (ASML) – Picks-and-Shovels Cash Engine
Moat — €7 billion backlog of EUV/DUV scanners—enough to backfill revenue through 2025 .
Catalyst — July 17 earnings; any pull-forward of High-NA shipments will spike EPS sensitivity.
Technical Setup — Shares defended the 50-day MA and formed an inverse H&S; neckline €965, target €1100.
What-if? — A hawkish Fed pop in real rates typically clips high-duration names—trail stops tightly.
5. Taiwan Semi (TSM) – Foundry Tollbooth
Moat — 60 % global foundry share; owns the AI chip taper.
Catalyst — Company hints at 5-8 % price hike on N3/N5 wafers to offset tariff risk.
Technical Setup — May revenue beat catapulted price above a two-year base; next resistance $195, then ATH $200+.
What-if? — A deteriorating U.S.–Taiwan tariff skirmish could compress margins; hedge with SMH puts.
6. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) – Liquidity Lever
Why Include? — Provides instant sector exposure and a liquid hedge; constituents line up almost one-for-one with the picks above.
Trade Idea — Pair long SMH against short SOXX to monetize SMH’s heavier Nvidia/Micron weight during July’s earnings cycle.
July Execution Grid
Accumulate during low-volume holiday drift (July 3–5).
Size positions via 2×-ATR stops below each pick’s 20-day EMA.
Target a July 30 exit when the bulk of earnings gaps have played out.
