USD/JPY Bears Maintain Control Amid Tariff Uncertainty; Critical Support at 144.00 Eyed
Technical Analysis:
USD/JPY remains under pronounced bearish pressure despite a modest rebound following better-than-expected U.S. March payroll data (+265K). After initially trading down to an intraday cycle low at 145.55, the pair has slightly trimmed losses but struggles to gain meaningful upside momentum, underscoring persistent bearish sentiment. The heightened overnight volatility near 17%, exceptionally high for Monday options expirations, highlights deep market anxiety linked to tariff-related uncertainties and deteriorating global growth prospects.
Key technical levels remain firmly in focus. Immediate resistance emerges at 146.55, representing the prior year-to-date low, and closely aligning with significant historical pivots (August 5 high and October 2 peak). A decisive close above 146.55 would be required for bulls to stabilize the outlook, potentially opening a corrective rally toward the March 14 low at 147.75. Yet, bearish technical indicators, including falling daily RSI, reinforce downside momentum, making a substantial upward correction challenging in the short term.
On the downside, bears are targeting critical support at 144.34, marked by the August 7 low, closely followed by psychologically significant support at 144.00, the ascending three-year trendline originating from January 2023 lows. A decisive breach of this pivotal area would likely trigger significant stop-loss selling, accelerating the decline toward deeper support near 143.70 (January trendline support) and potentially 143.45 (October 2, 2023 low). Traders should remain vigilant for comments from Fed Chair Powell later on Friday, which could provide fresh directional impetus amid the ongoing risk-off market conditions.