EUR/USD Forms Doji Candle Near 1.08, Bulls Await Break Above 1.0830 Resistance
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD traded indecisively Tuesday, briefly touching a fresh 13-session low at 1.0777 on EBS during Asian hours, before staging a modest recovery into the New York session open near 1.0820. Early bullish momentum was evident as the pair extended gains to an intraday peak at 1.0830, aided by a tightening German-U.S. yield spread. However, bullish sentiment quickly faded, and EUR/USD slipped back to nearly unchanged territory, closing the session marginally higher at +0.04%. This indecision was clearly captured by the daily doji candle formation, indicating equilibrium between bulls and bears.
Technically, EUR/USD maintains a cautiously positive stance despite recent consolidation. The pair continues to hold well above its critical 200-day moving average, currently located around the 1.0760/70 support zone, reinforcing medium-term bullish sentiment. Moreover, the rising monthly RSI continues to signal underlying upward momentum, even though daily momentum indicators have flattened somewhat in the short term. Immediate resistance remains clearly defined at Tuesday’s high of 1.0830. A sustained break above this level would open the path toward more significant hurdles around 1.0900, potentially retargeting the 2024 peak above 1.1000.
Asset manager positioning data further strengthens the bullish technical narrative, as long EUR positions recently climbed to the highest level since late October, according to the latest CFTC report. Concurrently, yield spreads show early signs of reverting to a euro-supportive stance after recent widening stalled near the -190/-195bps resistance area. Should U.S. economic data, particularly March consumer confidence, reinforce expectations of slowing U.S. growth, spreads could narrow further, potentially accelerating EUR/USD’s upward trajectory toward last year’s highs.